For the last two years, whenever I've calculated variance by country for
R-P312 "All" I get results that match Myres' 2010 study in that France
always has a very high variance. One problem, however, is there just aren't
many R-P312 haplotypes available in our DNA projects with MDKA's from
East/Central Europe (anything east of Germany.)
With the advent of R-P312 subclade Z196 and additional testing, the number
of haplotypes is edging up so I ran the variance calculations again. To keep
the sample size up, I backed down to 37 or greater length haplotypes. I used
only the 25 non-multicopy markers and calculated sum of the variance
relative to a base = 1.0 to make it easier to compare. I express the caveats
that we still need larger samples, a better cross-section of Europe/W/SW
Asia and I'd prefer to use only 67 length haplotypes.
I was startled a bit to find East/Central Europe came up higher than France,
so I broke the countries out as best I could. It didn't change the essence
of the ranking.
Hungary_____________: Var=1.31 (N=15)
Baltic states_______: Var=1.24 (N=15)
Belarus/Russia/Ukrai: Var=1.23 (N=26)
Poland______________: Var=1.15 (N=26)
France______________: Var=1.12 (N=188)
Czech Rep.__________: Var=1.10 (N=12)
England_____________: Var=1.03 (N=540)
Nordic area_________: Var=1.02 (N=71)
Germany_____________: Var=1.01 (N=181)
Switzerland_________: Var=0.98 (N=43)
Italy_______________: Var=0.96 (N=60)
Ireland_____________: Var=0.94 (N=935)
Wales_______________: Var=0.93 (N=91)
Iberia______________: Var=0.92 (N=494)
Low Countries_______: Var=0.91 (N=43)
Scotland____________: Var=0.90 (N=463)
It's a bit of twist, but the variance runs just about polar opposite to the
I've never been able to figure out how a Mediterranean route into Europe
worked for R-P312, at least when looking at the Y STR variance and the SNP
phylogenetic trail. It seems like the more data and the more resolution, the
more indications are that R-P312 moved east to west across the core of the
continent. We still don't have many R-P312 haplotypes from the Balkan
Peninsula, but if I add the Italian Peninsula together with Greece, Croatia,
Algeria and Malta I get this result:
East Mediterranean__: Var=0.90 (N=27)
If I just look at the Balkans, this is all we get. I don't think this is a
high enough count (only 4) to mean anything, but here it is:
Greece/Croatia______: Var=0.85 (N=4)
This is not to say that some R-L11* or R-M269 L11- uncles and cousins didn't
come across the boot of Italy and into Iberia at an early period, but I
don't think that's what happened with R-P312. Keep in mind, R1b in Western
Europe is about 96% R-L11 (P312 + U106 + L11*.)
It has always been perplexing that R-U106, R-P312 and R-L11 all have TMRCA
aging of about the same time, but (according to Myres) R-U106 showed higher
variance in the Baltic states than in Western Europe whereas R-P312 showed
higher variance in France. The jury is still out, but perhaps R-P312's
launching points are pretty close to U106's after all.
I wish we had more R-P312 data from the Near East, Anatolia and the
Caucasus. We know there is some R-P312 in Anatolia. I guess I should wish
for more Romanian data as well. We probably have to look deeper at the
R-L11* brothers in these areas as well as R-L23 L11- cousins.
Any new news on the R-U106 or R-L11* fronts?
Variance of R-P312 lineages highest in eastern Europe
I take this as further evidence most R1b arrived in western Europe by way of eastern (but not southeastern) Europe:
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What does it mean when variance is higher? That the sub-haplo group has been there longer? Could the Danube river valley have been the migration route?
"What does it mean when variance is higher? That the sub-haplo group has been there longer?"
That's what I'd interpret to be the most likely explanation in this case, yes.
"Could the Danube river valley have been the migration route?"
It's certainly possible.
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