Early results from commercial and academic testing suggest the bulk of Central Asian, Middle Eastern, and South Asian R1a will turn out to be Z93+ and L342.2+. An academic, posting at dna-forums:
It appears that Z93 and Z95, which, according to the heuristic tree from the 1K genomes project, are above L342.2 do separate most of the Europeans who are ancestral for Z93 and Z95 from the Pakistanis, Indians, Iranians, Ashkenazi Levites and the Eastern Turks (probably Kurds). [. . .] We do have some very preliminary results on Z93 and Z95 that would indicate that almost all Balkan and East European R1a1's are ancestral for Z93 and Z95. Also most of Western Turkey but not Eastern Turkey. I think that the Tuscans who are derived for Z93 and Z95 must be originally of Ashkenazi ancestry (perhaps also the Iberian).Note: Ashkenazi Levite R1a is L342.2+. I can see no reasonable grounds on which to propose the Z93+ L342.2- TSI and IBS samples are of Jewish origin. More from the academic:
Most Pakistanis are Z93/Z95. We haven't tested many Indians, but the few we have are Z93/Z95. We haven't genotyped any other Z or L SNPs on R1a1 backgrounds. What amazes me is the clear geographic bifurcation between Middle East/South Asian Z93/Z95 (and by inference L342.2) and European markers such as M458. This points to a vary old what we term vicariance pattern between Europe and the Middle East with respect to R1a1. Maybe the original source of R1a1 is somewhere in the middle such as Armenia or Turkey and some R1a1 moved to Europe to become M458 and other newly discovered L# lineages and other R1a1's move to Iran/Pakistan/India/Central Asia to become Z93/Z95. I think that this bifurcation occurred at least 10,000 years ago, but then of course we tend to use the evolutionary mutation rates on YSTRs.Another poster points out: "Dividing by 3 [to bring the estimate more in line with real mutation rates] gives an age of 3300 years, almost exactly the estimate from Nordtvedt's spreadsheet." Someone else recently estimated the TMRCA for L342.2+ at around 3,600 years. So: if current patterns hold, the bulk of South Asian R1a unambiguously falls within European R1a variation. While I fully expect, when we eventually see results for these markers in large academic samples published, the papers will feature evolutionary mutation rates and less than parsimonious attempts to fit the distribution of M417 sublineages to archaeology, it's pretty clear to me Z93 and L342.2 originated on the Steppe within the past 4000 years or so and spread with Indo-Iranian.